Obama’s speech and talks with Netanyahu: no agreements, but discrepancy has been evident

The US President Obama’s anticipated address to the people and governments in Middle East was delivered on Thursday this week, the negotiations with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed on the next day on Friday. The outcomes of what comes to the Palestine conflict are disappointing. Neither Arabs were happy, nor did Israel accept what we may define as evidently clearer US stand on the way to the peace in Palestine.

No return to borders before 1967 for Israel, - openly declared PM Netanyahu to disagree with basic approach sounded in President Obama’s speech. The time of US Administration release of their stand immediately before the American-Israeli summit might be seen as a pressure on Israeli government, however the final outcome was disappointing on the first view.  One can think that the US has made a step away from its traditional partnerships, both in Arab world and Israel. There was not any evident support and recognition of new opportunities within the Hamas and Fatah rapprochement achieved by Egypt facilitation, and nor open support to such and Egyptian role. And the borders suggested as before 1967 were refused by Israeli government.

However, emerging democracies in Egypt and Tunisia were promised to get substantial technical support. On the other hand a doubt of Hamas peaceful intentions was sounded and their recognition of the state of Israel was rigorously requested, which made the US stand closer on that point with Israel. Especially cautious was the part of the speech addressing other partnership in Arab world: legitimacy of Bahrain government was supported and the message was to invite establish “a dialogue”. Even Bashar Assad was invited to lead the transition, or “go out of way” nevertheless.

The balance of messages justifies that the US will most probably keep a pause and will not act rigorously to pressure for some while, presumably till the upcoming presidential election.  The speech was more of ideology and principle approach than practical interference value. And that enabled some observers to denote the expected engagement of the US will do the “leadership in passive voice”: http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/20115209414145884.html

 Having recognized the immense role the US play in the global policy many those who seek changes might be interested to expect the second term of Obama presidency as promising more, rather than any new administration. And Obama’s speech comprised such justifications. The world has learned about what the President, who has come to change traditional policy, might make a principal approach of the US policy. In Israel powerful opposition forces did not share and openly disagreed with the Netanyahu’s response. http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=221472 . A promise of solid assistance to renovating Egypt sounded as a support of the policy trends of interim government.

Thus the months ahead to the US presidential election in 2012 is not a break, but very important time for reconsidering the traditional priorities, reviewing the principles of political vision and promoting more confidence and understanding of all actors in response to emerging trends and values of Arab resurrection movement.

Arab spring blossoms to bring new fruits of Middle East policy?

When we reflect on positivity of Arab uprisings the outcomes of Tunisian and Egyptian popular movement come to mind. Some political analysts named those outcomes a first wave of Arab revolution, denoting the developments in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria as the second: http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/20115151582859118.html. The most important are changes that take place in Egypt – the biggest Arab country.

Positive changes that people hope to achieve and strive to, in other words, new values of Middle East policy that the Arab spring might bring, could be articulated in following points.

-          The first and most important are country reforms that would establish new democratic political institutions and accountable government after decades of corrupted authoritarian rule.

-          Accountable government would be closer to popular perceptions and expectations of regional conflict resolution. We have already seen the first fruit in the role the new Egyptian government has played in Fatah and Hamas rapprochement.

-           Revival of Egyptian leadership in Arab world. The signs of that motion are evident in the facilitation role Egypt has played between two wings of Palestinian political authorities – in the Western bank and Gaza strip.  New Egyptian government has also been critical about priorities of the US government annual assistance and rejected a USAID assistance package to rework

-          In Egypt a tradition of fair litigation and judgement of former dictatorship might be established concerning the accusations against the family of former President Mubarak

-          Free elections in September this year  might work to rehabilitate and transfer the Islamic political force into legitimate and peaceful political development factor

-          Relations with Western democracies might be established as alliance for democratic reforms and consequently enhance mutual understanding between Arab citizens and the West and improve effectiveness of assistance programs

-          Changes and streamlining of Israeli stand might occur to stop the settlement policy and promote peace negotiations and creation of the State of Palestine.

The positive scenario above described is not just a romantic dream as we can see some actual steps undertaken in that direction. The pressure on Israel has been considerably increased most evidently by changes in Arab countries directly involved in the conflict. However the critical role belongs to the US.

European allies of Washington have unequivocally referred to inevitable changes in the US policy on the way to sustainable peace for Palestine. See: http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/02/uk-prime-minister-us-should-be.html . However the current Israel government is still keeping to previous priorities of their policy in the conflict and does not see good potential of Arab resurrection. However the traditional ties with the US might now be revisited. T

The upcoming visit of Mr Netanyahu to the US was announced as a time to discuss the whole range of relationship. Though many observers are sceptical about essential changes of the US policy within the term left to the next presidential rally, however the second eventual term might be marked with renovated US policy priorities finally after the declaration of policy change announced by Obama in Cairo at the inception of his first presidency.