Russia and Syria between the “spring” and the “winter”

Did you ever play a letter mosaic game, trying to build new words from one, which you started the game from? Reading the recent news about Syria and contemplating the expected developments in closest future , I was struck by the fact that the only state name, which could have a meaningful order of the letters in the name of “Syria”, is Russia (actually Rysia – is almost exactly how the Russia is articulated in Arabic and Turkic languages).  Given a meaningful spelling for Arabs is the order of consonants, two countries actually have the same letter in their names, but in a slightly different order (“s-r-y” and “r-s-y”).

After the Arab League extended the term of the observation mission in Syria but Gulf States withheld to send their members, the final withdrawal of the mission could have been easily predicted. The similarity between Libya and Syria cases has become more obvious with the exception of the stand Russia took on Kaddafi’s regime and that of President Assad.

BBC report commented on the suspension of the Arab League's observer mission and the followed upsurge in violence that even “more attention will be focused on the UN Security Council's efforts next week to get a tough resolution on Syria”. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16779203 . An Arab League report to the UN Security Council is expected on the upcoming Tuesday. However Russian foreign minister Lavrov expressed his surprise with the move by Arab League and the Russian attitude to a tough resolution and support to closer foreign engagement in Syria is seemed being unchanged.  

Four days ago on January 25^th the crowd in Cairo celebrated the start of Arab spring. We have alluded to the “global warming” connation of the spring on the Nile banks. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/12/arab-spring-and-global-warming.html .  Russia lives in the expectation of presidential elections on March 4, 2012. The spring is late in Russian climate and the beginning of March is still the time when the land is covered with snow, but the new tide of warming in Russia has started already in December. What can we expect in Russia in March and how the world will respond on that could affect the developments in Syria  in the range between the “S”pring and the winte”R”.

Turks and Arabs: Arab spring might lead to revival of common political space.

I am aware that every word in the title may entail lengthy debates to specify the meaning and contemporary implications. The title is simplistic refection of the changing role of the Turkey in Middle East policy placed in longer historical perspective.

Indeed the eminent victory of the Moslem Justice and Development Party (or AKP) in the June 12 elections denoted an important milestone of an increasing integration of Middle East policies with the developments on the Turkish scene. Arab spring, which manifested a demand for political renovation based on citizenry values and human dignity, unfortunately did not bring strong leadership alternatives to overthrown dictatorships. In the meantime it has undoubtedly legitimized Islamic political forces, which were evidently visible in Egyptian upraising, as well as in the movements in other Arab countries. Obvious manifestation of that trend was Egyptian facilitation of Hamas and Fatah rapprochement in Palestine.

Nevertheless the actors on scene seem have not come to  a mutually shared vision of the future reforms and the role of revolutionary actors- army, citizens, oppositional parties and youth -  in increasingly demanded new political system. And here is where the Turkish experience comes to help. Emerging value of Arab coordination in Palestine-Israeli conflict carries a potential of tougher Arab stand in peace process. On the other hand the messages and challenges that come from Arab insurrections have already started influencing the global actors on the scene – European countries and the US. And the following effect was an increasing pressure on Israel,  with whom the US used to keep a priority of their Middle East policy.  http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/obamas-speech-and-talks-with-netanyahu.html

The developments of the last few days provide many proofs of changing priorities and reshaped alliances.  PM Erdogan speech on the balcony immediately after his party win of election manifested the regional significance of Turkish developments as clear as never. Some may consider this appeal to Moslem world and Arab resurrection as unnecessary demagogy at the time when internally two huge challenges: reconciliation of constitutional reforms and Kurdish issue, -  have to overwhelm the new government attention. However continuing limitation of Turkish policy priorities on internal affairs does not count emerging demand for Turkey to advance acting in stalemate of confrontation with Arab dictatorships.

Controversial developments and obviously increasing scale of bloodshed and confrontation in Syria has brought the controversies of the Arab revolt to Turkish borders. The world attention and concerns are getting concentrated on Turkish – Syrian borders. Hollywood celebrity Angelina Jolie has asked Turkish Foreign Ministry to arrange her visit of Syrian refugees. The US does not seem leaning to act rigorously, but offered a help to Turkey on the same refugee challenge. Turkey’s response has by no means been late. Immediately after elections a Syria discussion was convened in the government and Erdogan called Bashar al-Assad to insistently recommend leading actual reforms and keeping a distance of hardliners in the government. Turkish analytics foresee the possibility of urgent visit by Foreign Minster Davutoglu, or Chief of Turkish intelligence Hakan Fidan to Syria in the aftermath of this Wednesday meeting of Turkish ambassadors to Arab countries.

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent his message to salute the Turkish election results news has come that the second humanitarian caravan that planned to float to Gaza might be cancelled as a spokesman of the Turkish NGO Humanitarian Relief Foundation told referring to critical developments in Syria. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=relief-group-signals-u-turn-on-gaza-plan-2011-06-14 .  Thus the demanded transformations of Israeli policy might get started from improvement of Turkish-Israeli relations.

One more meaningful and provoking term was not put in the title of this blog posting: “New Ottoman era”. It does have a full right to be a subject of full range of debating, as the increasing leadership ambitions of Turkey are not based on previous values of nationalist concepts but are addressing still sustainable sense of common Moslem identity. However one could make a mistake if assumed that the trend is a mere retrieval of the old Ottoman heritage and value system. It is now about transformation of Islam in political sphere and renovation of the relationship of Moslem world and the West, which might hopefully constitute an essential characteristic of an inevitable globalization.