I was
watching recently a TV program about Maya calendar
that was told to be over in 2012. Some people interpreted it as a prediction of
the end of the world. However Maya civilization experts argued that the actual meaning
could be an indication of radical changes in the world, but not the end.
Changes have been around in the word when people in Middle
East, in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries of the Arab world rose to change
the boring practice of pressure, restrictions, total surveillance and suppression.
They rose to struggle for their dignity and rights to have a say in decisions about
their own and their country destiny. This movement was later named as “Arab
spring”.
Not only Arabs were striving towards renovation and changes,
American people were excited when black American was elected to govern the most
powerful economy and nation, which symbolized the power of the West. Two moves has met at the edge cutting line of
Middle East policy and conflict: when Arabs have got coordinated to unite two contesting
powers of Palestinian resistance.
We have indicated repeatedly to a global affect the Arab insurrection
has made on Europe and other regions in the neighborhood. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html. Protesters in the
US and European capitals came to the streets to demand changes in bad
practice of managing economy, banking, and social affairs. Italian
prime-minister was first targeted by citizens and the first who has left the
office already this year.
Unexpectedly Russia has raised citizens’ voices against the fraud
in elections and corruption in governance. The well expected scenario of Putin’s coming back
to presidential office was challenged by thousands of protesters in the streets
of Moscow in December.
Vaclav Havel and Kim Chen Il died almost simultaneously in
December. Did their deaths signify a continuous contest between two conflicting
governance systems – strictest authoritarianism and romantic democracy?
This is a load we are going to take to the New Year, which
seems promising considerable changes of the world policy architecture:
- Democracy and authoritarianism: outcomes of
elections in Egypt, resolution of Syria turmoil, responses from Arab monarchies
and after effects on Eurasia regimes are
expected to cast more light on this global challenge
-
Dialogue with Islam: whether Islamic groups and forces would get legitimized
in international policy and relations, would there be a transformation of
hatred and exclusiveness to tolerance and cooperation between Islam and the
West?
-
Can we expect reshuffling of traditional alliances
and political preferences in relationship between the US and Israel as well as
within the Israeli society towards Arabs?
-
Do the changes in Middle East generate any response
and could make affect on developments in Central Eurasia?
It is hard to predict developments along the lines enumerated
above, however intersection and counter-effects seem driving the global policy
and changes on every national level.
The renowned Russian historian Lev Gumilev developed a
theory of passion as a driving force of
ethnic history. He saw an impetus for the passion in global environment
conditions and cosmic cataclysms. Did Arab spring and global warming work as interrelated
phenomena? Difficult question to answer. However the evident observation is
that Arab spring might turn into a global worming to prove the truth of global
policy and global human community based on values and concerns mutually shared.
Happy New Year!
