Sunday 4 March 2012

Competing demands of Turkey: Middle East and South Caucasus


Renown Turkish think Tank TESEV in cooperation with Eurasia Partnership Foundation conducted in Tbilisi last week on March 2 a thrilling discussion of Turkey role in the South Caucasus and specifically of any potential for Turkey to move affairs forward of status quo in South Caucasus conflicts.  The Turkish policy in the region has been always a point of expert discussion since dismemberment of the Soviet Union. And that does have a meaningful significance as Turkey was an opposite number of emerging Soviet Russia in crafting the map of the South Caucasus and establishment of that day system of regional security guaranties in the aftermath of the Word War I.

However the conference in Tbilisi  has come at essentially different circumstances of the ever growing demand for Turkey to deeply engage in older but increasingly turbulent conflict zone of Middle East. Given the historical experiences with Russia in struggle for the Black Sea and the Caucasus and recent Russian attempts to revitalise their presence in Arab Near East Turkey has ended up in the cross cutting point of many clashing interests and demands.  Closest neighbourhood, domestic policy dynamics, which are cautiously but still evidently perceived as teaching experience in the South and to the North of Turkey, make this centrally located country an influential power in wider Middle East region.

State policy view angles were represented by retired  and in-office diplomats:  Levent Murat Burhan, Turkish Ambassador to Georgia, Mr Pascal Heyman, Deputy Director, Policy Support Service (OSCE), EU diplomats with essential regional experience, former Ambassadors and international  mission heads to Georgia  - Guenther Baechler (Switzerland) , Dieter Boden (Germany), Craig Oliphant (UK) and Kenneth Yalowitz (US).  The South Caucasus governments were represented by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Tornike Gordadze on behalf  of Georgia and  Mr Shovgi Mehtizade advisor to the Azerbaijani Embassy in Georgia.  

The meaningful and symbolic but slightly contesting overtones were articulated by retired Ambassador Temel Iskit and current head of the mission to Georgia Mr Levent Burhan. While Mr. Burhan eloquently and neatly defined the principles of the policy towards South Caucasus in compliance with basic international priorities, peace and regional cooperation, the retired Ambassador Temel Iskit has openly expressed his disappointment and characterized conflicts in the South Caucasus as stand off situation.

The concluding session was designed to suggest some fresher vision and featured the presentations by civil society actors on behalf of international organizations and  the South Caucasus countries. One could not make a conclusion that they proved the expectation, as they simply reported about activities to promote peace and mutual understanding between the people of conflicting countries.  However the major question remained: why did the gap tend to widen?

Pivotal point and the reason of the status quo unchanged were that governments while indicating to citizens to start bridging the gaps and creating peaceful atmosphere,  felt free to go back to their domestic political challenges in the whole range of election, legitimacy, economic domination concerns. And when it comes to civil society to mitigate the bitter sense of conflict after-effects they actually do not feel supported and secured by clear government commitments to listen and consider outcomes of civil society exchanges.  

Sunday 29 January 2012

Russia and Syria between the “spring” and the “winter”


Did you ever play a letter mosaic game, trying to build new words from one, which you started the game from? Reading the recent news about Syria and contemplating the expected developments in closest future , I was struck by the fact that the only state name, which could have a meaningful order of the letters in the name of “Syria”, is Russia (actually Rysia – is almost exactly how the Russia is articulated in Arabic and Turkic languages).  Given a meaningful spelling for Arabs is the order of consonants, two countries actually have the same letter in their names, but in a slightly different order (“s-r-y” and “r-s-y”).

After the Arab League extended the term of the observation mission in Syria but Gulf States withheld to send their members, the final withdrawal of the mission could have been easily predicted. The similarity between Libya and Syria cases has become more obvious with the exception of the stand Russia took on Kaddafi’s regime and that of President Assad.

BBC report commented on the suspension of the Arab League's observer mission and the followed upsurge in violence that even “more attention will be focused on the UN Security Council's efforts next week to get a tough resolution on Syria”. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16779203 . An Arab League report to the UN Security Council is expected on the upcoming Tuesday. However Russian foreign minister Lavrov expressed his surprise with the move by Arab League and the Russian attitude to a tough resolution and support to closer foreign engagement in Syria is seemed being unchanged.  

Four days ago on January 25th the crowd in Cairo celebrated the start of Arab spring. We have alluded to the “global warming” connation of the spring on the Nile banks. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/12/arab-spring-and-global-warming.html .  Russia lives in the expectation of presidential elections on March 4, 2012. The spring is late in Russian climate and the beginning of March is still the time when the land is covered with snow, but the new tide of warming in Russia has started already in December. What can we expect in Russia in March and how the world will respond on that could affect the developments in Syria  in the range between the “S”pring and the winte”R”.