“Arab Spring” and “Global Warming”: reflections on the eve of New Year

I was watching recently a TV program about Maya calendar that was told to be over in 2012. Some people interpreted it as a prediction of the end of the world. However Maya civilization experts argued that the actual meaning could be an indication of radical changes in the world, but not the end.

Changes have been around in the word when people in Middle East, in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries of the Arab world rose to change the boring practice of pressure, restrictions, total surveillance and suppression. They rose to struggle for their dignity and rights to have a say in decisions about their own and their country destiny. This movement was later named as “Arab spring”.

Not only Arabs were striving towards renovation and changes, American people were excited when black American was elected to govern the most powerful economy and nation, which symbolized the power of the West.  Two moves has met at the edge cutting line of Middle East policy and conflict: when Arabs have got coordinated to unite two contesting powers of Palestinian resistance.

We have indicated repeatedly to a global affect the Arab insurrection has made on Europe and other regions in the neighborhood. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html.  Protesters in the US and European capitals came to the streets to demand changes in bad practice of managing economy, banking, and social affairs. Italian prime-minister was first targeted by citizens and the first who has left the office already this year.

Unexpectedly Russia has raised citizens’ voices against the fraud in elections and corruption in governance.  The well expected scenario of Putin’s coming back to presidential office was challenged by thousands of protesters in the streets of Moscow in December.

Vaclav Havel and Kim Chen Il died almost simultaneously in December. Did their deaths signify a continuous contest between two conflicting governance systems – strictest authoritarianism and romantic democracy?  

This is a load we are going to take to the New Year, which seems promising considerable changes of the world policy architecture:

-          Democracy and authoritarianism: outcomes of elections in Egypt, resolution of Syria turmoil, responses from Arab monarchies  and after effects on Eurasia regimes are expected to cast more light on this global challenge

-          Dialogue with Islam:  whether Islamic groups and forces would get legitimized in international policy and relations, would there be a transformation of hatred and exclusiveness to tolerance and cooperation between Islam and the West?

-          Can we expect reshuffling of traditional alliances and political preferences in relationship between the US and Israel as well as within the Israeli society towards Arabs?

-          Do the changes in Middle East generate any response and could make affect on developments in Central Eurasia?

It is hard to predict developments along the lines enumerated above, however intersection and counter-effects seem driving the global policy and changes on every national level.

The renowned Russian historian Lev Gumilev developed a theory of passion as a driving force  of ethnic history. He saw an impetus for the passion in global environment conditions and cosmic cataclysms. Did Arab spring and global warming work as interrelated phenomena? Difficult question to answer. However the evident observation is that Arab spring might turn into a global worming to prove the truth of global policy and global human community based on values and concerns mutually shared.

Happy New Year!

Defence against offence: US Defence Secretary warned Israel about isolation in Middle East.

Israel stands against negotiations with Palestinians after  reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The statements by two top political figures in the US policy have told such approach to conflict the US policy in the Middle East. First President Obama declared that 1967 borders are acceptable approach in the negotiations for the US interests in the region. Then State Secretary H. Clinton said that he US government looks forward to a dialogue with legitimate Islamic forces.  

The Netanyahu government has not been responsive to such new trend in global policy quite reasonably echoing the rise of popular movement in Arab world and reshuffling the relationship of countries of “Arab spring” with the Western governments.  We have been referring to the increasing pressure on Israel to halt settlement construction and start peace negotiations. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html  However the Israeli government resilience might have been rooted in conceivable discrepancies in the US administration concerning priorities of partnerships and relationship with Arab countries and Israel.

Today Defence secretary of the US Lean Panetta warned Israel to avoid eventual isolation and called to stay devoted to partnerships in Middle East, which certainly alluded to the recent chill in relationship with Turkey. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111231539907422.html. It is Saturday today, and a response has not come from Netanyahu’s office. The statements, if any could be harsh, but the point is what finally come up in the actual policy of Israeli government. Has the time come to change a stand to negotiations, or is there a rising trend to government changes in Israel, and the third, the less desirable option could be continuing ignorance of the new trend in the Middle East, increasing confrontation, and presumably further isolation of Israel?

The US ship between leadership and friendship: the reef of UNESCO membership of Palestine.

UNESCO vote for Palestine membership has been a significant move towards the demanded overhaul of Middle East policy architecture argued in previous postings about implications of Arab insurrection: http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html .  The overwhelming majority of 107 votes in favor and only 14 votes against indicated the worldly spread recognition of the Palestinian state in international community. Full membership of the Palestinian State in UN might work as drive to essential reconstruction of the US policy and Israel security concept. Actually it touches policy fundamentals fixed in the US legislation, which strictly prohibits paying the US dues to any UN agency that admitted the Palestine. These laws were adopted under the pressure of Israeli lobby in 1990-s.

The US policy in Middle East has come to the point of contest between leadership and friendship. Is that the way the inevitable reconstruction of the Middle East political landscape will go? And what particular value, leadership or friendship,  would prevail? Unlike some, many enough observers who prefer speaking about the clash of national interests and “special relations” with Israel in the US policy, I would replace a sound wording of “national interest” with technical term of “leadership” in the formulation of the dilemma. The “friendship” with Israel might serve for “national interests” better than “leadership” ambitions in Middle East policy. The question is how the priorities of national interests are defined in the US? By no means we should doubt a value of friendship, but it should be expanded towards all nations striving to security, human dignity and equal partnerships in the Middle East.

And this is the way how leadership and friendship work together to secure peace and stability that are unhesitatingly justified priorities of every nation, and the US in particular as one with proven experience of service for the interests of its own people.

Dictator is dead! Long life to Dictatorship?

Pursuit of Kaddafi has come to head, but denouement was not expected this kind.  One month before Kaddafi’s killing the most powerful field commander, the leader of Tripoli's Military Council  Abdel Hakim Belhadj told in his interview to al-Jazeera that opposition troops will treat Kaddafi at his capture according to standard rules. His assumption however was that Kaddafi will never let himself be arrested but rather kill himself. “This revolution has set high standards regarding the justice system’ – Belhadj has stated. http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/09/2011920155237218813.html

Video made and posted in Internet showed that former dictator was kept alive, the UN requested an investigation of his death.  Such end of former dictator has made concerns proven that revenge may supersede a strive to “Justice”, which has not probably come to Libya yet. Military and Islamic groups, defected clans, activated groups of citizens – will they all work to establish legitimate space for the revival of the nation? Or they will continue fighting for ‘new Libya” now in between themselves?

Justice in Arab world is not only a value of social consent but also an issue of national and common Arab dignity. Commentators of Kaddafi’s death referred that his coming to power in 1969 was welcome by vast majority of Libyans, an Arab people, who were humiliated by the disaster of the war of 1967. Kaddafi seemed captured by this idea, but actually failed to served it. We could see that once the peace did not come to Arabs in their entire world dictatorships were generated and flourished in national corners of their Motherland.

The “Arab spring” is waiting for “autumn heating”

I looked one month back to my blog postings and had seen them less frequently done than in previous months. It was not only because of other commitments I had had to do, or no time to read and pursue the developments but for the lack of impetus to respond to any breaking news. I have had a sense that the turbulent events, radical overhauls have no place to take in what is going on in countries of “Arab spring” right at the moment. The situation in five countries of sweeping uprisings has achieved a certain balance, or stalemate, if you want to call it as such, which could be overturned only after quantitative acquisitions slowly piled up to generate a visible change.

NATO declared in June that operations in Libya will continue three months more and International Criminal Court issued orders on Kaddafi and his son Seyfu-l-Islam’s arrest. These developments seem having no potential for final solution, except one to enhance foreign involvement in crisis. An alternative trend was a disclosure that has come from Muammar Kaddafi’s daughter Aisha, who told to the French press on June 30 that direct and indirect negotiations are ongoing with oppositional Interim National Council “to stop the bloodshed between Libyans”. Quantitative changes that could lead to a kind of transformation of Libyan conflict might be expected by the end of another three month term of NATO engagement, but it might come from what is going inside the anti-Kaddafi opposition, which has recently demonstrated some discrepancy regarding the future of Muammar Kaddafi in Libya.

In Yemen the protestors’ struggle against President Ali Abdallah Saleh is gradually transforming into a contest between President Saleh’s clan and the opposing clan of Bani al-Ahmar. This transformation can make external actors more cautious to engage and al-Qaeda led Islamic opposition inspired to grow with ambitions for power. On what side the quantitative changes could bring more gravity is difficult to judge.

In the third country where the confrontation used to grow between opposition and government – in Syria – dynamics were not in favour for the sustainability of the regime despite many advantageous features which provided more resilience for President Bashar Assad. Unlike Libya Syrian policy was not self contained and anchored in Lebanon and partnership with Iran.  However the US and France Ambassadors’ visit to rebellion Hama engendered a response in a shape of violent pro-government demonstrations in front of both missions in Damascus. This upgrade of the war of nerves has led to yesterday statement by Hilary Clinton featuring an offensive wording that President Assad “is not indispensible.” The limiting benchmark here is progress of Palestinian state building.  Syria pursued well balanced policy in Middle East conflict, which brought a good reputation in Arab eyes by its stubborn consistency and also containment of radical militarization of the situation. The matter of Palestinian statehood might indicate how long such counter-policy by Syria might continue working for President Bashar Assad.

In countries of winning revolutions – in Egypt and Tunisia - a challenge is a progress of demanded democracy reforms. Disappointments that are gradually rising in public expectations of interim governments might spill over in case of failure of upcoming elections. The most important concern is whether political interests would distort the electoral process. In Egypt elections could be marked by triumphal legitimization of Islamic parties, and Moslem Brotherhood in particular. Would that be tolerated internally and externally for the benefits of electoral rights and successful cohesion of political scene?

This very brief overview enables to conclude that the upcoming fall season could be critical line in the evolution of Arab movement that has started in spring.

Palestine leadership visit: Azerbaijan joins international pressure on Israel?

We have repeatedly made an assumption that Arab spring bears a potential of radical overhaul of the Middle East conflict architecture http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html , and reshuffling of traditional alliances in the region.

http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/easing-blockade-at-gaza-new-move-to.html

Despite all existing dissension and contentions two Palestinian authorities have come together to start building Palestinian State. After US President Obama’s speech addressed to Arab world, in which the US administration declared its countenance to the 1967 borders between Israel and Arab State, Palestinian authorities made few further steps to get broader international support for their plans. In the end of May Mahmud Abbas clarified that Palestinian authorities will bring up the declaration of the State of Palestine to the UN General Assembly, if Israel government does not come back to resume negotiations.

Russian Foreign Office manifested their intention to support Palestinian State at UN General Assembly once the issue comes to voting. Very substantial backing on behalf of Turkey was done by President Abdallah Gul on June 16: Turkey will vote for the establishment of the Palestinian state at the eventual UN GA voting in September. France has suggested convening of an international conference in Paris in mid July  to discuss peace agreement based on recognition of 1967 borderline. Mahmud Abbas immediately accepted the offer, but Benjamin Netanyahu did not and told they appreciate the French initiative, but need to weigh it further and consult with American friends.

International pressure on Israel is getting heavier weight.  The last weekend on June 25 Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan manifested unambiguous and comprehensive support to the State of Palestine at the press conference with Mahmud Abbas in Ankara. This week Mahmud Abbas made an official two day visit to Azerbaijan. He was introduced as President of the Palestinian State and conducted few events with President Ilham Aliyev and other high ranking officials of Azerbaijani government. The Embassy of Palestine was officially opened in the building provided by Azerbaijani authorities. At the joint press conference in Baku yesterday President Aliyev ensured a full backing to the establishment of the State of Palestine with the capital city in Eastern Jerusalem. Azerbaijan has been and will continue to be on the side of Palestine elsewhere in international organizations and gatherings, - Ilham Aliyev said. Mahmud Abbas highlighted many similar challenges both nations were facing because of aggression by neighboring states.

 Palestinian leadership visit to Azerbaijan and its tangible outcomes indicated further remarkable changes in regional policy. For the first time since independence Azerbaijan openly declared its unanimous support to Palestinian authority plans. It is noteworthy because after a certain cooling in relationship with Turkey value of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel has risen. Cooperation with Israel has also been valuable because of the growing tension of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and for further confrontation and militarization trend in relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The reasonable question is what has urged the Azerbaijani government to take a stronger stand for the Palestinian interests? This might be a valid inference of increasingly coordinated international pressure on Israeli government aimed at demanded renovation of Israel policy towards Arabs. Policy makers in Azerbaijan may have come to conclusion that the long standing conflicts and continuing occupations have ended up under critical view of democracy and peace champions. After the failure of Armenia and Azerbaijan summit meetings under the aegis of Russia a stronger side in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan, has aligned with militarily weaker side in Arab-Palestine conflict to demonstrate its peaceful aspirations, and both countries, Palestine and Azerbaijan, were victims of territorial occupation by aggressive neighbors. And finally we have probably witnessed another indication of traditional alignment of Azerbaijani and Turkish external policies, which was not evident in the case of relationship with Israel until these most recent developments in question. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/06/turks-and-arabs-arab-spring-might-lead.html

Turks and Arabs: Arab spring might lead to revival of common political space.

I am aware that every word in the title may entail lengthy debates to specify the meaning and contemporary implications. The title is simplistic refection of the changing role of the Turkey in Middle East policy placed in longer historical perspective.

Indeed the eminent victory of the Moslem Justice and Development Party (or AKP) in the June 12 elections denoted an important milestone of an increasing integration of Middle East policies with the developments on the Turkish scene. Arab spring, which manifested a demand for political renovation based on citizenry values and human dignity, unfortunately did not bring strong leadership alternatives to overthrown dictatorships. In the meantime it has undoubtedly legitimized Islamic political forces, which were evidently visible in Egyptian upraising, as well as in the movements in other Arab countries. Obvious manifestation of that trend was Egyptian facilitation of Hamas and Fatah rapprochement in Palestine.

Nevertheless the actors on scene seem have not come to  a mutually shared vision of the future reforms and the role of revolutionary actors- army, citizens, oppositional parties and youth -  in increasingly demanded new political system. And here is where the Turkish experience comes to help. Emerging value of Arab coordination in Palestine-Israeli conflict carries a potential of tougher Arab stand in peace process. On the other hand the messages and challenges that come from Arab insurrections have already started influencing the global actors on the scene – European countries and the US. And the following effect was an increasing pressure on Israel,  with whom the US used to keep a priority of their Middle East policy.  http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/obamas-speech-and-talks-with-netanyahu.html

The developments of the last few days provide many proofs of changing priorities and reshaped alliances.  PM Erdogan speech on the balcony immediately after his party win of election manifested the regional significance of Turkish developments as clear as never. Some may consider this appeal to Moslem world and Arab resurrection as unnecessary demagogy at the time when internally two huge challenges: reconciliation of constitutional reforms and Kurdish issue, -  have to overwhelm the new government attention. However continuing limitation of Turkish policy priorities on internal affairs does not count emerging demand for Turkey to advance acting in stalemate of confrontation with Arab dictatorships.

Controversial developments and obviously increasing scale of bloodshed and confrontation in Syria has brought the controversies of the Arab revolt to Turkish borders. The world attention and concerns are getting concentrated on Turkish – Syrian borders. Hollywood celebrity Angelina Jolie has asked Turkish Foreign Ministry to arrange her visit of Syrian refugees. The US does not seem leaning to act rigorously, but offered a help to Turkey on the same refugee challenge. Turkey’s response has by no means been late. Immediately after elections a Syria discussion was convened in the government and Erdogan called Bashar al-Assad to insistently recommend leading actual reforms and keeping a distance of hardliners in the government. Turkish analytics foresee the possibility of urgent visit by Foreign Minster Davutoglu, or Chief of Turkish intelligence Hakan Fidan to Syria in the aftermath of this Wednesday meeting of Turkish ambassadors to Arab countries.

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent his message to salute the Turkish election results news has come that the second humanitarian caravan that planned to float to Gaza might be cancelled as a spokesman of the Turkish NGO Humanitarian Relief Foundation told referring to critical developments in Syria. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=relief-group-signals-u-turn-on-gaza-plan-2011-06-14 .  Thus the demanded transformations of Israeli policy might get started from improvement of Turkish-Israeli relations.

One more meaningful and provoking term was not put in the title of this blog posting: “New Ottoman era”. It does have a full right to be a subject of full range of debating, as the increasing leadership ambitions of Turkey are not based on previous values of nationalist concepts but are addressing still sustainable sense of common Moslem identity. However one could make a mistake if assumed that the trend is a mere retrieval of the old Ottoman heritage and value system. It is now about transformation of Islam in political sphere and renovation of the relationship of Moslem world and the West, which might hopefully constitute an essential characteristic of an inevitable globalization.