Sunday 29 May 2011

Easing blockade at Gaza – a new move to besiege Israel?


How successful will the transfer to democracy go in Egypt is still a question, but changes of Egyptian stand on Arab-Israel conflict is evident. We happened to predict that more cohesive approach by Arab states on the conflict will be among outcomes of Arab spring. We have also noticed that the wind of changes on river Nile might overhaul the architecture of Middle East conflict. More precisely it might promote a value of Arab unity http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/02/resurrection-of-new-arab-unity-can.html and revive Egyptian leadership http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html .

Agreement that has come between Fatah and Hamas was clearest manifestation of that emerging trend. Disclosure of the US view of 1967 borders to go between two states in Palestine laid a scheme of eventual conflict resolution that has reflected some new realities in the region.  Another Egyptian step on the direction was easing Palestinian Arabs to cross the borderline at Rafah crossing station. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13581141

However the Israel government did not consider the changes of Arab world a call for everybody to change. Conventional priority of Israel stand was based on hostility with Arabs and on anti-Arab alliances.  In Egypt the Middle East policy changes have come after renewal of society challenges, and similarly in Israel we could imagine  such changes to take place also after renovation of the national political sphere. 

Consistent steps by Egypt, more clarity of the US stand, sliding of French and British policy towards recognition of unilateral announcement of Palestinian are indicators of increasing pressure on Israel. Another testing exam is the September UN General Assembly, at which the Palestinian state announcement is expected.   

Will the conflicting approaches reconcile by the time, or Palestinians take a break in ascending campaign until new presidential election in the US? Both options are valued as positive scenario that should finally lead to changes in Israeli society and government policy, unless another disastrous escalation of violence come to set back the matter to a mere confrontation and hatred that used to serve certain militarist interests, but not simple citizens.

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