When we reflect on positivity of Arab uprisings the outcomes of Tunisian and Egyptian popular movement come to mind. Some political analysts named those outcomes a first wave of Arab revolution, denoting the developments in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria as the second: http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/20115151582859118.html. The most important are changes that take place in Egypt – the biggest Arab country.
Positive changes that people hope to achieve and strive to, in other words, new values of Middle East policy that the Arab spring might bring, could be articulated in following points.
- The first and most important are country reforms that would establish new democratic political institutions and accountable government after decades of corrupted authoritarian rule.
- Accountable government would be closer to popular perceptions and expectations of regional conflict resolution. We have already seen the first fruit in the role the new Egyptian government has played in Fatah and Hamas rapprochement.
- Revival of Egyptian leadership in Arab world. The signs of that motion are evident in the facilitation role Egypt has played between two wings of Palestinian political authorities – in the Western bank and Gaza strip. New Egyptian government has also been critical about priorities of the US government annual assistance and rejected a USAID assistance package to rework
- In Egypt a tradition of fair litigation and judgement of former dictatorship might be established concerning the accusations against the family of former President Mubarak
- Free elections in September this year might work to rehabilitate and transfer the Islamic political force into legitimate and peaceful political development factor
- Relations with Western democracies might be established as alliance for democratic reforms and consequently enhance mutual understanding between Arab citizens and the West and improve effectiveness of assistance programs
- Changes and streamlining of Israeli stand might occur to stop the settlement policy and promote peace negotiations and creation of the State of Palestine.
The positive scenario above described is not just a romantic dream as we can see some actual steps undertaken in that direction. The pressure on Israel has been considerably increased most evidently by changes in Arab countries directly involved in the conflict. However the critical role belongs to the US.
European allies of Washington have unequivocally referred to inevitable changes in the US policy on the way to sustainable peace for Palestine. See: http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/02/uk-prime-minister-us-should-be.html . However the current Israel government is still keeping to previous priorities of their policy in the conflict and does not see good potential of Arab resurrection. However the traditional ties with the US might now be revisited. T
The upcoming visit of Mr Netanyahu to the US was announced as a time to discuss the whole range of relationship. Though many observers are sceptical about essential changes of the US policy within the term left to the next presidential rally, however the second eventual term might be marked with renovated US policy priorities finally after the declaration of policy change announced by Obama in Cairo at the inception of his first presidency.
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