Friday 6 May 2011

Arab revolution may overhaul the Middle East conflict architecture: reshuffle of major alliances expected?


We have happened to note that Arab indignation can reshape the relations between Arabs and the West. Already in the immediate aftermath of revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt we have seen the growing divergence between Europe and the US in respect to Israeli settlements on occupied territories. David Cameron during his visit to Middle East in February made clear that the US should have more of a good will to promote the peace agreement in Arab-Israel conflict, and his statement followed shortly after the voting in UN Security Council, in which the US was actually isolated having vetoed the resolution to condemn the settlement policy of Israel. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/02/uk-prime-minister-us-should-be.html

Hamas and Fatah agreement announced in Cairo few days ago indicated to a renewal of former political spectrum. Egypt has now worked for strengthening of Arab stand. By no means it should be interpreted as confrontation impetus. In the contrary, we may expect the progress in peace negotiations once Europe’s backing continue to enhance. And we may see the outcomes very soon already in the course of May.

Benjamin Netanyahu is making desperate efforts to keep the affairs as they were before the Fatah and Hamas rapprochement. During his ongoing visits to European capitals he tried to reaffirm that Palestinian authorities cannot make peace both with Hamas and Israel and the agreement between them may only delay the announcement of the State of Palestine.  http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=219170

However he seems facing alarming messages in the UK and France. World media reported that Prime Minister Cameron and President Nicolas Sarkozy has made clear that if Israel did not resume peace negotiations France and the UK might consider recognition of the unilateral declaration of the  State of Palestine regardless of Israel’s disagreement. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/may/04/israel-palestinian-territories?INTCMP=SRCH

The announcement of the State of Palestine is expected at the UN General Assembly in September. And how the US would approach the matter this time? It is critical term of Israel and the US special relationship. They do not seem effective to keep the US interests protected in the renewing Middle East. However the changes in the region cannot bypass Israel itself, now they seem driving the developments rather than inertia of previous political priorities.

Following his visit to Europe Mr. Netanyahu is invited to visit the US and meet President Obama on May 20.  "The leaders look forward to discussing the full range of issues of mutual interest," is said in the State Department statement.  http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?c=MID&s=TOP&i=6419144. In Israeli media concerns are sounded that President Obama may change the US track of permanent support to Israel. However there is still a strong belief that the traditional partnership is invincible - http://izrus.co.il/diasporaIL/article/2011-05-05/14175.html

The time and again we may figure out that the “Tahrir” (liberation) movement in Arab world will have an immense impact on regional and global policy and may mark substantial changes in traditional policy tracks and alliances. It may do, but will it do or not might come evident soon this year.

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