Дорога к Миру: Принуждение или Привлечение?

Несколько минут сегодняшней программы GPS Фарида Закарии (03.03.2013) – два небольших сюжета – заставили меня оторваться от работы над средневековыми источниками и подумать о политическом мышлении и чувствах политиков в сложном деле решения застарелых конфликтов в мире.

Прежде всего интервью с послом Ирана в ООН господином Мохаммадом Хазаи. Вопрос был, почему Иран, настаивая на своей устремленности к миру в регионе, не отвечает на приглашение США о переговорах и утверждает, что их намерения неискренни и несерьезны? Что могло бы служить показателем серьезности намерений США? Ответ был прост: говоря о мире, США продолжают запугивать Иран, угрожать санкциями и утверждать о необходимости комбинирования переговорной политики  с давлением. Так с народом и государством, выстоявшем в многочисленных испытаниях, говорить нельзя.  Хорошим знаком был бы реальный шаг в разрядке напряженности.

Второй сюжет был о документальном фильме, недавно снятом в Израиле и завоевавшем  широчайшую зрительскую аудиторию: шесть бывших руководителей израильской спецслужбы «Шин-Бет» единодушно утверждают в интервью журналистам, что война сделала израильтян жестокими, что армия ведет себя так же, как немецкие нацисты во Второй мировой войне, что мир для израильтян становится все более и более дальней перспективой.  Хорошо бы, премьер Натаньяху тоже посмотрел этот фильм, - заключил Фарид Закария.

Оба сюжета ставят один и тот же вопрос, откуда проходит дорога к миру? Вспомнились события в Ираке. Саддам Хусейн развязал несправедливую войну. Действия коалиции шли под знаком «принуждения к миру». Возможно, не было иной меры, чем войсковая операция, для немедленного прекращения страданий людей. И тем не менее мир в Ираке не наступил. Почему? Потому что нет и не может быть единого представления о том, каким должен быть мир после войны. Принуждение к миру и разговоры о мире через давление не создают главных условий и необходимого состояния людей для ориентирования на долговременный мир: доверия, намерения понять другую сторону, готовности пересмотреть свою позицию.

Утверждают, что в ближайшее время Президент Обама намерен совершить свой первый визит в Израиль. Здесь в Америке многие считают главной его заслугой то, что он всем несогласным сторонам во внутренней политике давал знаки, приглашающие к сотрудничеству, переговорам, старался выстроить новую культуру в формировании политики, где при разнообразии мнений всех объединяло бы стремление действовать сообща, иными словами, он старался не принуждать к принятию собственной правды, а создавать общую правду частично за счет своей. И потому кое-что получалось не так, как ожидалось, но америкацы стали лучше понимать друг друга. Сможет ли такой взгляд на вещи помочь в решении застарелого и жесточайшего Палестинского конфликта? В передыдущий срок президент США показывал знаки, свидетельствующие о намеренниях изменить традиционную схему отношений, но многое, в том числе и отвественность за результаты выборов и за возможность продолжить свою программу, ограничивали его. Сегодня, в последний его срок в Белом доме кое-что, возможно, и изменилось.

Но не только солидарность со сторонниками мира в Палестине заставила меня оторваться от памятников средневековой арабской мудрости. Сегодня ни одна из сторон в наших конфликтах на Южном Кавказе не выказывает серьезных намерений достичь мира. Принуждение силой влечет унижение достоинства, подавление еще теплящегося внимания, интереса, сочувствия и признания хороших дел людей на противной стороне. А пока армяне грозят нам со стратегических высот захваченной азербайджанской земли, а мы отвечаем дополнительными ассигнованиями в военный бюджет. Чья победа принесет мир? Почему отставные руководители «Шин-Бет» заговорили о мире искренне, а о своем народе с болью, только сейчас? Один из них даже сказал, что израильтяне выигрывают битвы, но проигрывают войну и свое будущее. Может нам не нужно проходить уроки, уже пройденные другими и очевидные всем?

Defence against offence: US Defence Secretary warned Israel about isolation in Middle East.

Israel stands against negotiations with Palestinians after  reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The statements by two top political figures in the US policy have told such approach to conflict the US policy in the Middle East. First President Obama declared that 1967 borders are acceptable approach in the negotiations for the US interests in the region. Then State Secretary H. Clinton said that he US government looks forward to a dialogue with legitimate Islamic forces.  

The Netanyahu government has not been responsive to such new trend in global policy quite reasonably echoing the rise of popular movement in Arab world and reshuffling the relationship of countries of “Arab spring” with the Western governments.  We have been referring to the increasing pressure on Israel to halt settlement construction and start peace negotiations. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html  However the Israeli government resilience might have been rooted in conceivable discrepancies in the US administration concerning priorities of partnerships and relationship with Arab countries and Israel.

Today Defence secretary of the US Lean Panetta warned Israel to avoid eventual isolation and called to stay devoted to partnerships in Middle East, which certainly alluded to the recent chill in relationship with Turkey. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111231539907422.html. It is Saturday today, and a response has not come from Netanyahu’s office. The statements, if any could be harsh, but the point is what finally come up in the actual policy of Israeli government. Has the time come to change a stand to negotiations, or is there a rising trend to government changes in Israel, and the third, the less desirable option could be continuing ignorance of the new trend in the Middle East, increasing confrontation, and presumably further isolation of Israel?

Palestine leadership visit: Azerbaijan joins international pressure on Israel?

We have repeatedly made an assumption that Arab spring bears a potential of radical overhaul of the Middle East conflict architecture http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html , and reshuffling of traditional alliances in the region.

http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/easing-blockade-at-gaza-new-move-to.html

Despite all existing dissension and contentions two Palestinian authorities have come together to start building Palestinian State. After US President Obama’s speech addressed to Arab world, in which the US administration declared its countenance to the 1967 borders between Israel and Arab State, Palestinian authorities made few further steps to get broader international support for their plans. In the end of May Mahmud Abbas clarified that Palestinian authorities will bring up the declaration of the State of Palestine to the UN General Assembly, if Israel government does not come back to resume negotiations.

Russian Foreign Office manifested their intention to support Palestinian State at UN General Assembly once the issue comes to voting. Very substantial backing on behalf of Turkey was done by President Abdallah Gul on June 16: Turkey will vote for the establishment of the Palestinian state at the eventual UN GA voting in September. France has suggested convening of an international conference in Paris in mid July  to discuss peace agreement based on recognition of 1967 borderline. Mahmud Abbas immediately accepted the offer, but Benjamin Netanyahu did not and told they appreciate the French initiative, but need to weigh it further and consult with American friends.

International pressure on Israel is getting heavier weight.  The last weekend on June 25 Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan manifested unambiguous and comprehensive support to the State of Palestine at the press conference with Mahmud Abbas in Ankara. This week Mahmud Abbas made an official two day visit to Azerbaijan. He was introduced as President of the Palestinian State and conducted few events with President Ilham Aliyev and other high ranking officials of Azerbaijani government. The Embassy of Palestine was officially opened in the building provided by Azerbaijani authorities. At the joint press conference in Baku yesterday President Aliyev ensured a full backing to the establishment of the State of Palestine with the capital city in Eastern Jerusalem. Azerbaijan has been and will continue to be on the side of Palestine elsewhere in international organizations and gatherings, - Ilham Aliyev said. Mahmud Abbas highlighted many similar challenges both nations were facing because of aggression by neighboring states.

 Palestinian leadership visit to Azerbaijan and its tangible outcomes indicated further remarkable changes in regional policy. For the first time since independence Azerbaijan openly declared its unanimous support to Palestinian authority plans. It is noteworthy because after a certain cooling in relationship with Turkey value of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel has risen. Cooperation with Israel has also been valuable because of the growing tension of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and for further confrontation and militarization trend in relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The reasonable question is what has urged the Azerbaijani government to take a stronger stand for the Palestinian interests? This might be a valid inference of increasingly coordinated international pressure on Israeli government aimed at demanded renovation of Israel policy towards Arabs. Policy makers in Azerbaijan may have come to conclusion that the long standing conflicts and continuing occupations have ended up under critical view of democracy and peace champions. After the failure of Armenia and Azerbaijan summit meetings under the aegis of Russia a stronger side in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan, has aligned with militarily weaker side in Arab-Palestine conflict to demonstrate its peaceful aspirations, and both countries, Palestine and Azerbaijan, were victims of territorial occupation by aggressive neighbors. And finally we have probably witnessed another indication of traditional alignment of Azerbaijani and Turkish external policies, which was not evident in the case of relationship with Israel until these most recent developments in question. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/06/turks-and-arabs-arab-spring-might-lead.html

Arab revolution may overhaul the Middle East conflict architecture: reshuffle of major alliances expected?

We have happened to note that Arab indignation can reshape the relations between Arabs and the West. Already in the immediate aftermath of revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt we have seen the growing divergence between Europe and the US in respect to Israeli settlements on occupied territories. David Cameron during his visit to Middle East in February made clear that the US should have more of a good will to promote the peace agreement in Arab-Israel conflict, and his statement followed shortly after the voting in UN Security Council, in which the US was actually isolated having vetoed the resolution to condemn the settlement policy of Israel. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/02/uk-prime-minister-us-should-be.html

Hamas and Fatah agreement announced in Cairo few days ago indicated to a renewal of former political spectrum. Egypt has now worked for strengthening of Arab stand. By no means it should be interpreted as confrontation impetus. In the contrary, we may expect the progress in peace negotiations once Europe’s backing continue to enhance. And we may see the outcomes very soon already in the course of May.

Benjamin Netanyahu is making desperate efforts to keep the affairs as they were before the Fatah and Hamas rapprochement. During his ongoing visits to European capitals he tried to reaffirm that Palestinian authorities cannot make peace both with Hamas and Israel and the agreement between them may only delay the announcement of the State of Palestine.  http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=219170

However he seems facing alarming messages in the UK and France. World media reported that Prime Minister Cameron and President Nicolas Sarkozy has made clear that if Israel did not resume peace negotiations France and the UK might consider recognition of the unilateral declaration of the  State of Palestine regardless of Israel’s disagreement. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/may/04/israel-palestinian-territories?INTCMP=SRCH

The announcement of the State of Palestine is expected at the UN General Assembly in September. And how the US would approach the matter this time? It is critical term of Israel and the US special relationship. They do not seem effective to keep the US interests protected in the renewing Middle East. However the changes in the region cannot bypass Israel itself, now they seem driving the developments rather than inertia of previous political priorities.

Following his visit to Europe Mr. Netanyahu is invited to visit the US and meet President Obama on May 20.  "The leaders look forward to discussing the full range of issues of mutual interest," is said in the State Department statement.  http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?c=MID&s=TOP&i=6419144. In Israeli media concerns are sounded that President Obama may change the US track of permanent support to Israel. However there is still a strong belief that the traditional partnership is invincible - http://izrus.co.il/diasporaIL/article/2011-05-05/14175.html. 

The time and again we may figure out that the “Tahrir” (liberation) movement in Arab world will have an immense impact on regional and global policy and may mark substantial changes in traditional policy tracks and alliances. It may do, but will it do or not might come evident soon this year.