Competing demands of Turkey: Middle East and South Caucasus

Renown Turkish think Tank TESEV in cooperation with Eurasia Partnership Foundation conducted in Tbilisi last week on March 2 a thrilling discussion of Turkey role in the South Caucasus and specifically of any potential for Turkey to move affairs forward of status quo in South Caucasus conflicts.  The Turkish policy in the region has been always a point of expert discussion since dismemberment of the Soviet Union. And that does have a meaningful significance as Turkey was an opposite number of emerging Soviet Russia in crafting the map of the South Caucasus and establishment of that day system of regional security guaranties in the aftermath of the Word War I.

However the conference in Tbilisi  has come at essentially different circumstances of the ever growing demand for Turkey to deeply engage in older but increasingly turbulent conflict zone of Middle East. Given the historical experiences with Russia in struggle for the Black Sea and the Caucasus and recent Russian attempts to revitalise their presence in Arab Near East Turkey has ended up in the cross cutting point of many clashing interests and demands.  Closest neighbourhood, domestic policy dynamics, which are cautiously but still evidently perceived as teaching experience in the South and to the North of Turkey, make this centrally located country an influential power in wider Middle East region.

State policy view angles were represented by retired  and in-office diplomats:  Levent Murat Burhan, Turkish Ambassador to Georgia, Mr Pascal Heyman, Deputy Director, Policy Support Service (OSCE), EU diplomats with essential regional experience, former Ambassadors and international  mission heads to Georgia  - Guenther Baechler (Switzerland) , Dieter Boden (Germany), Craig Oliphant (UK) and Kenneth Yalowitz (US).  The South Caucasus governments were represented by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Tornike Gordadze on behalf  of Georgia and  Mr Shovgi Mehtizade advisor to the Azerbaijani Embassy in Georgia.  

The meaningful and symbolic but slightly contesting overtones were articulated by retired Ambassador Temel Iskit and current head of the mission to Georgia Mr Levent Burhan. While Mr. Burhan eloquently and neatly defined the principles of the policy towards South Caucasus in compliance with basic international priorities, peace and regional cooperation, the retired Ambassador Temel Iskit has openly expressed his disappointment and characterized conflicts in the South Caucasus as stand off situation.

The concluding session was designed to suggest some fresher vision and featured the presentations by civil society actors on behalf of international organizations and  the South Caucasus countries. One could not make a conclusion that they proved the expectation, as they simply reported about activities to promote peace and mutual understanding between the people of conflicting countries.  However the major question remained: why did the gap tend to widen?

Pivotal point and the reason of the status quo unchanged were that governments while indicating to citizens to start bridging the gaps and creating peaceful atmosphere,  felt free to go back to their domestic political challenges in the whole range of election, legitimacy, economic domination concerns. And when it comes to civil society to mitigate the bitter sense of conflict after-effects they actually do not feel supported and secured by clear government commitments to listen and consider outcomes of civil society exchanges.  

Russia and Syria between the “spring” and the “winter”

Did you ever play a letter mosaic game, trying to build new words from one, which you started the game from? Reading the recent news about Syria and contemplating the expected developments in closest future , I was struck by the fact that the only state name, which could have a meaningful order of the letters in the name of “Syria”, is Russia (actually Rysia – is almost exactly how the Russia is articulated in Arabic and Turkic languages).  Given a meaningful spelling for Arabs is the order of consonants, two countries actually have the same letter in their names, but in a slightly different order (“s-r-y” and “r-s-y”).

After the Arab League extended the term of the observation mission in Syria but Gulf States withheld to send their members, the final withdrawal of the mission could have been easily predicted. The similarity between Libya and Syria cases has become more obvious with the exception of the stand Russia took on Kaddafi’s regime and that of President Assad.

BBC report commented on the suspension of the Arab League's observer mission and the followed upsurge in violence that even “more attention will be focused on the UN Security Council's efforts next week to get a tough resolution on Syria”. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16779203 . An Arab League report to the UN Security Council is expected on the upcoming Tuesday. However Russian foreign minister Lavrov expressed his surprise with the move by Arab League and the Russian attitude to a tough resolution and support to closer foreign engagement in Syria is seemed being unchanged.  

Four days ago on January 25^th the crowd in Cairo celebrated the start of Arab spring. We have alluded to the “global warming” connation of the spring on the Nile banks. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/12/arab-spring-and-global-warming.html .  Russia lives in the expectation of presidential elections on March 4, 2012. The spring is late in Russian climate and the beginning of March is still the time when the land is covered with snow, but the new tide of warming in Russia has started already in December. What can we expect in Russia in March and how the world will respond on that could affect the developments in Syria  in the range between the “S”pring and the winte”R”.

“Arab Spring” and “Global Warming”: reflections on the eve of New Year

I was watching recently a TV program about Maya calendar that was told to be over in 2012. Some people interpreted it as a prediction of the end of the world. However Maya civilization experts argued that the actual meaning could be an indication of radical changes in the world, but not the end.

Changes have been around in the word when people in Middle East, in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries of the Arab world rose to change the boring practice of pressure, restrictions, total surveillance and suppression. They rose to struggle for their dignity and rights to have a say in decisions about their own and their country destiny. This movement was later named as “Arab spring”.

Not only Arabs were striving towards renovation and changes, American people were excited when black American was elected to govern the most powerful economy and nation, which symbolized the power of the West.  Two moves has met at the edge cutting line of Middle East policy and conflict: when Arabs have got coordinated to unite two contesting powers of Palestinian resistance.

We have indicated repeatedly to a global affect the Arab insurrection has made on Europe and other regions in the neighborhood. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html.  Protesters in the US and European capitals came to the streets to demand changes in bad practice of managing economy, banking, and social affairs. Italian prime-minister was first targeted by citizens and the first who has left the office already this year.

Unexpectedly Russia has raised citizens’ voices against the fraud in elections and corruption in governance.  The well expected scenario of Putin’s coming back to presidential office was challenged by thousands of protesters in the streets of Moscow in December.

Vaclav Havel and Kim Chen Il died almost simultaneously in December. Did their deaths signify a continuous contest between two conflicting governance systems – strictest authoritarianism and romantic democracy?  

This is a load we are going to take to the New Year, which seems promising considerable changes of the world policy architecture:

-          Democracy and authoritarianism: outcomes of elections in Egypt, resolution of Syria turmoil, responses from Arab monarchies  and after effects on Eurasia regimes are expected to cast more light on this global challenge

-          Dialogue with Islam:  whether Islamic groups and forces would get legitimized in international policy and relations, would there be a transformation of hatred and exclusiveness to tolerance and cooperation between Islam and the West?

-          Can we expect reshuffling of traditional alliances and political preferences in relationship between the US and Israel as well as within the Israeli society towards Arabs?

-          Do the changes in Middle East generate any response and could make affect on developments in Central Eurasia?

It is hard to predict developments along the lines enumerated above, however intersection and counter-effects seem driving the global policy and changes on every national level.

The renowned Russian historian Lev Gumilev developed a theory of passion as a driving force  of ethnic history. He saw an impetus for the passion in global environment conditions and cosmic cataclysms. Did Arab spring and global warming work as interrelated phenomena? Difficult question to answer. However the evident observation is that Arab spring might turn into a global worming to prove the truth of global policy and global human community based on values and concerns mutually shared.

Happy New Year!

Defence against offence: US Defence Secretary warned Israel about isolation in Middle East.

Israel stands against negotiations with Palestinians after  reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The statements by two top political figures in the US policy have told such approach to conflict the US policy in the Middle East. First President Obama declared that 1967 borders are acceptable approach in the negotiations for the US interests in the region. Then State Secretary H. Clinton said that he US government looks forward to a dialogue with legitimate Islamic forces.  

The Netanyahu government has not been responsive to such new trend in global policy quite reasonably echoing the rise of popular movement in Arab world and reshuffling the relationship of countries of “Arab spring” with the Western governments.  We have been referring to the increasing pressure on Israel to halt settlement construction and start peace negotiations. http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011_06_01_archive.html  However the Israeli government resilience might have been rooted in conceivable discrepancies in the US administration concerning priorities of partnerships and relationship with Arab countries and Israel.

Today Defence secretary of the US Lean Panetta warned Israel to avoid eventual isolation and called to stay devoted to partnerships in Middle East, which certainly alluded to the recent chill in relationship with Turkey. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/20111231539907422.html. It is Saturday today, and a response has not come from Netanyahu’s office. The statements, if any could be harsh, but the point is what finally come up in the actual policy of Israeli government. Has the time come to change a stand to negotiations, or is there a rising trend to government changes in Israel, and the third, the less desirable option could be continuing ignorance of the new trend in the Middle East, increasing confrontation, and presumably further isolation of Israel?

The US ship between leadership and friendship: the reef of UNESCO membership of Palestine.

UNESCO vote for Palestine membership has been a significant move towards the demanded overhaul of Middle East policy architecture argued in previous postings about implications of Arab insurrection: http://blog-abunajla.blogspot.com/2011/05/arab-revolution-may-overhaul-middle.html .  The overwhelming majority of 107 votes in favor and only 14 votes against indicated the worldly spread recognition of the Palestinian state in international community. Full membership of the Palestinian State in UN might work as drive to essential reconstruction of the US policy and Israel security concept. Actually it touches policy fundamentals fixed in the US legislation, which strictly prohibits paying the US dues to any UN agency that admitted the Palestine. These laws were adopted under the pressure of Israeli lobby in 1990-s.

The US policy in Middle East has come to the point of contest between leadership and friendship. Is that the way the inevitable reconstruction of the Middle East political landscape will go? And what particular value, leadership or friendship,  would prevail? Unlike some, many enough observers who prefer speaking about the clash of national interests and “special relations” with Israel in the US policy, I would replace a sound wording of “national interest” with technical term of “leadership” in the formulation of the dilemma. The “friendship” with Israel might serve for “national interests” better than “leadership” ambitions in Middle East policy. The question is how the priorities of national interests are defined in the US? By no means we should doubt a value of friendship, but it should be expanded towards all nations striving to security, human dignity and equal partnerships in the Middle East.

And this is the way how leadership and friendship work together to secure peace and stability that are unhesitatingly justified priorities of every nation, and the US in particular as one with proven experience of service for the interests of its own people.

Dictator is dead! Long life to Dictatorship?

Pursuit of Kaddafi has come to head, but denouement was not expected this kind.  One month before Kaddafi’s killing the most powerful field commander, the leader of Tripoli's Military Council  Abdel Hakim Belhadj told in his interview to al-Jazeera that opposition troops will treat Kaddafi at his capture according to standard rules. His assumption however was that Kaddafi will never let himself be arrested but rather kill himself. “This revolution has set high standards regarding the justice system’ – Belhadj has stated. http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/09/2011920155237218813.html

Video made and posted in Internet showed that former dictator was kept alive, the UN requested an investigation of his death.  Such end of former dictator has made concerns proven that revenge may supersede a strive to “Justice”, which has not probably come to Libya yet. Military and Islamic groups, defected clans, activated groups of citizens – will they all work to establish legitimate space for the revival of the nation? Or they will continue fighting for ‘new Libya” now in between themselves?

Justice in Arab world is not only a value of social consent but also an issue of national and common Arab dignity. Commentators of Kaddafi’s death referred that his coming to power in 1969 was welcome by vast majority of Libyans, an Arab people, who were humiliated by the disaster of the war of 1967. Kaddafi seemed captured by this idea, but actually failed to served it. We could see that once the peace did not come to Arabs in their entire world dictatorships were generated and flourished in national corners of their Motherland.

The “Arab spring” is waiting for “autumn heating”

I looked one month back to my blog postings and had seen them less frequently done than in previous months. It was not only because of other commitments I had had to do, or no time to read and pursue the developments but for the lack of impetus to respond to any breaking news. I have had a sense that the turbulent events, radical overhauls have no place to take in what is going on in countries of “Arab spring” right at the moment. The situation in five countries of sweeping uprisings has achieved a certain balance, or stalemate, if you want to call it as such, which could be overturned only after quantitative acquisitions slowly piled up to generate a visible change.

NATO declared in June that operations in Libya will continue three months more and International Criminal Court issued orders on Kaddafi and his son Seyfu-l-Islam’s arrest. These developments seem having no potential for final solution, except one to enhance foreign involvement in crisis. An alternative trend was a disclosure that has come from Muammar Kaddafi’s daughter Aisha, who told to the French press on June 30 that direct and indirect negotiations are ongoing with oppositional Interim National Council “to stop the bloodshed between Libyans”. Quantitative changes that could lead to a kind of transformation of Libyan conflict might be expected by the end of another three month term of NATO engagement, but it might come from what is going inside the anti-Kaddafi opposition, which has recently demonstrated some discrepancy regarding the future of Muammar Kaddafi in Libya.

In Yemen the protestors’ struggle against President Ali Abdallah Saleh is gradually transforming into a contest between President Saleh’s clan and the opposing clan of Bani al-Ahmar. This transformation can make external actors more cautious to engage and al-Qaeda led Islamic opposition inspired to grow with ambitions for power. On what side the quantitative changes could bring more gravity is difficult to judge.

In the third country where the confrontation used to grow between opposition and government – in Syria – dynamics were not in favour for the sustainability of the regime despite many advantageous features which provided more resilience for President Bashar Assad. Unlike Libya Syrian policy was not self contained and anchored in Lebanon and partnership with Iran.  However the US and France Ambassadors’ visit to rebellion Hama engendered a response in a shape of violent pro-government demonstrations in front of both missions in Damascus. This upgrade of the war of nerves has led to yesterday statement by Hilary Clinton featuring an offensive wording that President Assad “is not indispensible.” The limiting benchmark here is progress of Palestinian state building.  Syria pursued well balanced policy in Middle East conflict, which brought a good reputation in Arab eyes by its stubborn consistency and also containment of radical militarization of the situation. The matter of Palestinian statehood might indicate how long such counter-policy by Syria might continue working for President Bashar Assad.

In countries of winning revolutions – in Egypt and Tunisia - a challenge is a progress of demanded democracy reforms. Disappointments that are gradually rising in public expectations of interim governments might spill over in case of failure of upcoming elections. The most important concern is whether political interests would distort the electoral process. In Egypt elections could be marked by triumphal legitimization of Islamic parties, and Moslem Brotherhood in particular. Would that be tolerated internally and externally for the benefits of electoral rights and successful cohesion of political scene?

This very brief overview enables to conclude that the upcoming fall season could be critical line in the evolution of Arab movement that has started in spring.