Syria on balance of civil war and reforms

The reported crackdown and use of fire weapon and tanks in Deraa demonstrated determination by Syrian government to forcefully suppress the protests. However in other cities, where the demonstrations continued across the country, the measures undertaken were softer and ostensibly avoiding eventual bloodshed. Some observers considered it as just a temporary concession on the eve of UN Security Council discussion of Syria.

Finally on April 28 UN Security Council declined the statement proposed by four EU countries to condemn Syrian government for crackdown. Evidently the hesitation indicated to existing concerns about regional security and significant role the Syrian government has played in regional policy. Syria used to be crucial force in stabilizing fragile political scene in Lebanon. Iran and Syria maintain good relations and have been committed to cooperate in regional security challenges. Syria has been the most stubborn policy champion against Israel occupation of Arab Palestine and other Arab lands, which has brought much credibility for Bashar Assad among nationalist forces in Arab states.

However internally in the country Syrian president has been definitely losing his previous credit of modernizer and reformist that he enjoyed when came to replace his farther the former President Hafez Assad. Assad family belongs to Alevi sect of Shiite Moslems which constitute % 12-14 of the country population against %55-60 of Sunni Arabs and remaining minor percentages of variety of other ethno-confessional groups.

Alevi Arabs used to fill commanding positions in Syrian government, but a troublesome issue for the government was occurring Alevi engagement in protest actions in the city of Jabla. This is alarming indication of growing isolation of president Bashar and his heavy dependence on security forces and suppressive mechanisms in power. Does that leave no choice for him other than crackdown in addressing the protest sentiments in society? And what might be further actions of international community and organizations if the crackdown was escalated?

The overall controversy of the situation is that Syria, unlike Egypt and Jordan has not signed peace agreement with Israel and Israeli politicians have never concealed their will to see a “more friendly Syria” http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9470000/9470932.stm. 

Does that play for, or against Syrian regime? We have seen that UN back up for military measures against Kaddafi followed a kind of blessing from Arab countries and League of Arab States. What can be expected from the spectrum of such actors regarding Syria?

Failure of UN condemnation provided some breath, but increasing violence and abuses might change the balance towards more rigid approach. It is crucial time for young President Assad to take up the leadership and put a start for a new pattern of developments in present stage of Arab resurrection movement.